{"id":27093,"date":"2026-07-03T00:32:13","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T16:32:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theplutustimes.com\/?p=27093"},"modified":"2026-07-03T00:32:19","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T16:32:19","slug":"%e3%80%90%e4%b8%89%e5%8d%83%e4%b8%96%e7%95%8c%e3%80%91%e9%ab%98%e6%81%af%e4%b8%8d%e7%ad%89%e6%96%bc%e8%a6%81%e8%b7%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theplutustimes.com\/?p=27093","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u4e09\u5343\u4e16\u754c\u3011\u9ad8\u606f\u4e0d\u7b49\u65bc\u8981\u8dcc"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u65b0\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2dKevin Warsh\u5fb9\u5e95\u6d88\u9664\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u91cd\u8fd4\u300c\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u74b0\u5883\u300d\u7684\u6a02\u89c0\u9810\u671f\u3002\u65b0\u5b98\u4e0a\u4efb\uff0cKevin Warsh\u6ce8\u5b9a\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5e73\u5eb8\u7684\u5b98\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5728\u904e\u53bb 20 \u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u7d93\u7fd2\u6163\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u592e\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u300c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u300d\u4f86\u9810\u5224\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee5\u6b64\u4f5c\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u57fa\u77f3\uff1b\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u96a8\u8457Kevin Warsh\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u6368\u68c4\u9019\u7a2e\u904e\u5ea6\u5f15\u5c0e\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6e9d\u901a\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u5b8c\u5168\u626d\u8f4920\u5e74\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u6163\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u73fe\u6642\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08Fed Funds Rate\uff09\u7dad\u6301\u5728 3.5% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u8d85\u904e3.5\u5e74\uff0c\u8fd1\u4ee3\u53f2\u4e0a\u53ea\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e94\u6b21\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u671f\u9593<\/strong><\/td>S&P 500<\/td>\u9053\u74ca\u5de5\u696d\u6307\u6578<\/strong><\/td>\u90a3\u65af\u9054\u514b<\/strong><\/td>\u9ec3\u91d1<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
1964\u5e74<\/strong>11\u6708<\/strong> \u81f3<\/strong> 1972\u5e74<\/strong>2\u6708<\/strong><\/td>25.58%<\/td>6.01%<\/td>Data Unavailable<\/td>Data Unavailable<\/td><\/tr>
1972\u5e74<\/strong>3\u6708<\/strong> \u81f3<\/strong> 1992\u5e74<\/strong>5\u6708<\/strong><\/td>289.74%<\/td>265.99%<\/td>363.46%<\/td>595.76%<\/td><\/tr>
1994\u5e74<\/strong>4\u6708<\/strong> \u81f3<\/strong> 2001\u5e74<\/strong>9\u6708<\/strong><\/td>133.56%<\/td>143.37%<\/td>107.27%<\/td>-25.78%<\/td><\/tr>
2005\u5e74<\/strong>9\u6708<\/strong> \u81f3<\/strong> 2008\u5e74<\/strong>2\u6708<\/strong><\/td>9.09%<\/td>17.03%<\/td>5.65%<\/td>123.83%<\/td><\/tr>
2022\u5e74<\/strong>11\u6708<\/strong> \u81f3<\/strong> 2026\u5e74<\/strong>6\u6708<\/strong><\/td>92.20%<\/td>59.21%<\/td>135.00%<\/td>145.31%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

 
<\/strong>1995 \u5e74\u81f3 1996 \u5e74\u7684\u6e1b\u606f\u5468\u671f\uff08\u5373\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7b2c\u4e09\u968e\u6bb5\u7684\u8d77\u9ede\uff09\u8207\u73fe\u6cc1\u6709\u8457\u9a5a\u4eba\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u5ea6\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. \u5b8f\u89c0\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u5de7\u5408<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 1995 \u5e74\uff1a \u7d93\u6b77\u4e86 1994 \u5e74\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6050\u614c\u5f8c\uff0c1995 \u5e74\u7684\u7e3d\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c55\u73fe\u51fa\u5f37\u97cc\u7684\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u76f8\u5c0d\u4f4e\u8ff7\u4e14\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u5340\u9593\uff08\u7d04\u6bcf\u6876 17-20 \u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u3002\u9019\u6210\u70ba\u4e86\u6291\u5236\u901a\u8139\u9810\u671f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u8b93\u592e\u884c\u6709\u5598\u606f\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 2023-2024 \u5e74\uff1a \u540c\u6a23\u5728\u7d93\u6b77\u4e86 2022 \u5e74\u7684\u901a\u8139\u8207\u80fd\u6e90\u885d\u64ca\u5f8c\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u6062\u5fa9\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u539f\u6cb9\u7522\u91cf\u5275\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u5927\u5e45\u56de\u843d\u4e26\u7a69\u5b9a\u5728\u6bcf\u6876 70-80 \u7f8e\u5143\u5340\u9593\u3002\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u53d7\u63a7\uff0c\u70ba\u901a\u8139\u5f9e 9% \u9806\u5229\u56de\u843d\u81f3 3% \u9644\u8fd1\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u63a8\u52d5\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n


2. \u964d\u606f\u9031\u671f\u7684\u555f\u52d5\u539f\u56e0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 1995 \u5e74\u7684\u964d\u606f\u908f\u8f2f\uff1a \u6642\u4efb\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u845b\u6797\u65af\u73ed\u5728 1994 \u5e74\u6fc0\u9032\u5347\u606f\u5f8c\uff0c\u65bc 1995 \u5e74 7 \u6708\u958b\u555f\u4e86\u77ed\u66ab\u7684\u964d\u606f\u9031\u671f\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u4e26\u975e\u56e0\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u901a\u8139\u53d7\u63a7\u4e14\u7d93\u6fdf\u51fa\u73fe\u5fae\u5e45\u653e\u7de9\u8de1\u8c61\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u6a19\u6e96\u7684\u300c\u9810\u9632\u6027\u964d\u606f\u300d\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u5ef6\u7e8c\u7d93\u6fdf\u64f4\u5f35\u3001\u9054\u6210\u5b8c\u7f8e\u8edf\u8457\u9678\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 \u7576\u524d\u7684\u964d\u606f\u908f\u8f2f\uff1a \u9b91\u723e\u9818\u5c0e\u7684\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5728 2024 \u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u5728\u5931\u696d\u7387\u5fae\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u901a\u8139\u671d 2% \u76ee\u6a19\u9081\u9032\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u9078\u64c7\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u4f9d\u7136\u5177\u5099\u97cc\u6027\u6642\u300c\u8cb7\u4fdd\u96aa\u300d\uff0c\u4ee5\u78ba\u4fdd\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0d\u6703\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u7e7c\u7e8c\u64f4\u5f35\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n


3. \u964d\u606f\u9031\u671f\u63d0\u65e9\u5b8c\u7d50\u8207\u91cd\u555f\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u539f\u56e0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 1996-1997 \u5e74\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9006\u8f49\uff1a \u96a8\u8457\u9810\u9632\u6027\u964d\u606f\u767c\u63ee\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u79d1\u6280\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u7206\u767c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5728 1996 \u5e74\u5e95\u8fc5\u901f\u91cd\u65b0\u52a0\u901f\u3002\u66f4\u95dc\u9375\u7684\u50ac\u5316\u5291\u662f\uff0c\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u5728 1996 \u5e74\u5c55\u958b\u4e86\u4e00\u6ce2\u986f\u8457\u7684\u4e0a\u6f32\u884c\u60c5\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5e36\u52d5CPI\u5728 1996 \u5e74\u5c3e\u6bb5\u9010\u6f38\u6500\u5347\u3002\u9762\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u904e\u71b1\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u98a8\u96aa\u8207\u901a\u8139\u53cd\u5f48\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5728 1997 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u7d50\u675f\u5bec\u9b06\u9031\u671f\uff0c\u4e26\u91cd\u555f\u52a0\u606f\uff08\u5fae\u5e45\u5347\u606f 1 \u78bc\u81f3 5.50%\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 \u7576\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u64d4\u6182\uff1a \u9019\u6b63\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u6700\u5927\u7684\u96b1\u6182\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u65b0\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u6c83\u8a31\u5373\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u56b4\u5cfb\u5c40\u9762\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u5931\u696d\u7387\u9010\u6f38\u53d7\u63a7\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u6210\u70ba\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7576\u524d\u6700\u5927\u7684\u64d4\u6182\uff0c\u65bc 3 \u6708\u7206\u767c\u7684\u4f0a\u6717\u6230\u722d\u5f15\u767c\u4e86\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u51fa\u73fe\u6301\u7e8c\u6027\u53cd\u5f48\u7684\u6050\u614c\u3002\u9019\u5834\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u885d\u7a81\u5b8c\u7f8e\u8907\u88fd\u751a\u81f3\u653e\u5927\u4e86 1996 \u5e74\u6cb9\u50f9\u98c6\u6f32\u7684\u5287\u672c\u3002\u9019\u4f7f\u5f97\u539f\u672c\u7684\u964d\u606f\u9810\u671f\u906d\u5230\u5927\u5e45\u62b9\u9664\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5f37\u70c8\u64d4\u6182\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5c07\u63d0\u65e9\u7d42\u7d50\u964d\u606f\u9031\u671f\uff0c\u4e26\u5982\u540c 1997 \u5e74\u90a3\u822c\uff0c\u70ba\u4e86\u58d3\u5236\u6b7b\u7070\u5fa9\u71c3\u7684\u7269\u50f9\u800c\u91cd\u65b0\u5c07\u300c\u5347\u606f\u300d\u642c\u56de\u653f\u7b56\u9078\u9805\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n


4. \u671f\u9593\u7684\u6307\u6578\u8868\u73fe\uff1a\u8de8\u6642\u4ee3\u79d1\u6280\u9769\u547d\u5f15\u7206\u7684\u8d85\u7d1a\u725b\u5e02<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 1995-1996 \u5e74\uff08\u7db2\u969b\u7db2\u8def\u5143\u5e74\uff09\uff1a 1995 \u5e74 8 \u6708 Netscape\uff08\u7db2\u666f\uff09\u4e0a\u5e02\uff0c\u6a19\u8a8c\u8457\u7db2\u8def\u5546\u696d\u5316\u7684\u8d77\u9ede\u3002\u5728\u300c\u5b8f\u89c0\u8edf\u8457\u9678 + \u9810\u9632\u6027\u964d\u606f + \u8de8\u6642\u4ee3\u79d1\u6280\u9769\u547d\u300d\u7684\u4e09\u91cd\u50ac\u5316\u4e0b\uff0c\u958b\u555f\u4e86\u96a8\u5f8c\u5ef6\u7e8c\u6578\u5e74\u7684\u8d85\u7d1a\u6ce1\u6cab\u725b\u5e02\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 \u7576\u524d\uff08AI \u9769\u547d\u5143\u5e74\uff09\uff1a \u7531 ChatGPT \u8207 Nvidia \u9818\u8ecd\u7684\u751f\u6210\u5f0f AI \u6d6a\u6f6e\uff0c\u5b8c\u7f8e\u8907\u88fd\u4e86\u7576\u5e74\u7684\u72c2\u71b1\u3002\u5728\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u7e3d\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u6eab\u5e8a\u4e0b\uff0c\u7121\u61fc\u4f9d\u7136\u504f\u9ad8\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u8cc7\u91d1\u6e67\u5165\u79d1\u6280\u5de8\u982d\u3002\u56de\u6e2c\u7b2c\u4e94\u968e\u6bb5\u81f3\u4eca\uff0c\u90a3\u65af\u9054\u514b\u6307\u6578\u5df2\u7e73\u51fa 135% \u7684\u9a5a\u4eba\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u6a19\u666e 500 \u4ea6\u4e0a\u6f32\u8d85\u904e 92%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5ef6\u7e8c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5c0d 1990 \u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u5c0d\u7167\uff0c\u56de\u9867\u90a3\u5834\u7531\u79d1\u6280\u9769\u547d\u5e36\u52d5\u7684\u8d85\u7d1a\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u5b83\u6700\u7d42\u4e00\u76f4\u72c2\u5954\u5230\u4e86 2000 \u5e74\u624d\u771f\u6b63\u7834\u6ec5\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u70ba\u4e86\u58d3\u5236\u901a\u8139\u8207\u904e\u71b1\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u800c\u5728 1997 \u5e74\u63d0\u65e9\u7d50\u675f\u964d\u606f\u4e26\u91cd\u555f\u300c\u5347\u606f\u300d\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u9019\u6ce2\u7dca\u7e2e\u653f\u7b56\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u56de\u64a4\u5e45\u5ea6\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u5230 10%\u3002\u80a1\u5e02\u96a8\u5f8c\u4fbf\u5b8c\u5168\u7121\u8996\u5347\u606f\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u8cc7\u91d1\u7684\u72c2\u71b1\u8ffd\u6367\u4e0b\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5c62\u5275\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u300c\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u69ae\u300d\u5f80\u5f80\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u5f97\u6bd4\u4efb\u4f55\u7406\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9810\u671f\u90fd\u8981\u4e45\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u55ae\u6191\u300c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u53ef\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u300d\u6216\u300c\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u555f\u5347\u606f\u300d\u5c31\u76f2\u76ee\u770b\u7a7a\u6216\u505a\u7a7a\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u662f\u6975\u5ea6\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u65b0\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2dKevin Warsh\u5fb9\u5e95\u6d88\u9664\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u91cd\u8fd4\u300c\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u74b0\u5883\u300d\u7684\u6a02\u89c0\u9810\u671f\u3002\u65b0\u5b98\u4e0a\u4efb\uff0cKevin Warsh\u6ce8\u5b9a\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5e73\u5eb8\u7684\u5b98\u3002 \u5728\u904e\u53bb 20 \u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u5e02\u5834 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pmpro_default_level":0,"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"spay_email":""},"categories":[194,13,6],"tags":[],"modified_by":"\u80a1\u4e2d\u4eba","jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/theplutustimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27093"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/theplutustimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/theplutustimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theplutustimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theplutustimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27093"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/theplutustimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27093\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27094,"href":"https:\/\/theplutustimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27093\/revisions\/27094"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/theplutustimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27093"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theplutustimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27093"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theplutustimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27093"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}